It is hard to believe that this year marks the 8^th time that I’ve distributed my annual Derby analysis. This started back in 2003 with only a small e-mail list of friends, which has grown over the years to include family members, co-workers, and even a few complete strangers from across the country. As nostalgia sunk in, I thought back to all my favorite Derby memories, and realized that this year is the 20^th anniversary of my very first Kentucky Derby. So, as part of my research for this year’s picks, I took a trip down memory lane to see if I had learned anything through the years. If you’ve got some time to read, my year-by-year notes are at the end of this year’s picks.

When the analysis was complete, my conclusion was that Kentucky Derby winners don’t seem to fit a ‘profile.’

• You can win from the front… but you can also win coming from dead last.
• You need to run 100 Beyer figures in past races… unless you are Mine That Bird.
• Favorites can’t win once from 1979 through 2001…. but then win 4 of the next 6 races.
• 2 of the 3 longest of longshots in Derby history have happened in the past 5 years.

As soon as it seems like the favorites have turned the page on their curse… Giacomo and Mine That Bird mess everything up. I’m not sure anyone could have picked those two, but I’m still a believer that sticking to fundamentals can give you a great start in the right direction. Process over outcome. You must agree if you’ve read this far. Without further ado, here goes this year’s analysis.

Note 1: If you are a first timer or are looking for detailed descriptions of my usual Derby Maxims, you can start by reading last year’s Deep Lou Something: Derby Breakdown.

Note 2: It must be noted that this year’s best horse, Eskendereya, has had to pull out due to injury. He would undoubtedly be at 2 to 1 or lower if he was able to run. Two other strong contenders, Endorsement & Rule, have had to scratch as well, which is just another example of how difficult it is to win the Triple Crown.

Note 3: Anyone else going to Derby Day in Atlanta this year?

The Favorite

With Eskendereya out, it all starts with Lookin At Lucky. As long time readers remember, I’m strongly against betting a 3 to 1 shot in a 20 horse field… especially when he hasn’t run a 100 Beyer yet, is coming off a poor showing in his last race, and comes from the difficult post #1. His effort at the Rebel on the dirt was impressive… and he recovered nicely in the Santa Anita Derby after traffic forced him to come almost to a full stop… but it seems like he would need another big step up to win here. I recognize that you don’t win $1.5MM by accident, but I’m not laying 3 to 1 without some more support on the form.

Beyers over 100

Because so many good horses have scratched, only three horses are left with a 100 Beyer on their card: Sidney’s Candy, Jackson Bend, and Devil May Care. I still think it will take over 100 to win here, but eliminating all the horses without 100 on the card doesn’t seem as important as in years past. 7 other horses have run a 98 or better, so eliminating those under a 98 would get rid of half the field. It really feels like this year’s crop is weaker than ever… which should make for some interesting opportunities at the window.

Weather/Track

Early indications call for a 60% chance of rain Saturday. If the track is sloppy, you need to upgrade Super Saver, who broke his maiden impressively over a sloppy surface, as well as Awesome Act, who has a strong Tomlinson Rating over wet surfaces. If you make your wager early, make sure your horse doesn’t scratch due to weather concerns.

Hot Jockey

Pat Day, Jerry Bailey, Gary Stevens, and Rafael Bejarano have all been featured in my gambling plans in years past. Sometimes, a jockey just runs hot on race day. Be sure to see what jockeys are winning the races leading up to the Derby, just to see if someone is on a hot streak, and upgrade them accordingly. My current favorite Beja is riding #5 Line of David… but I can’t endorse anything more than a saver bet there.

Some things I like…

• Sidney’s Candy has already won at 1 1/8 miles in impressive fashion at the Santa Anita Derby.
• Mission Impazible’s move down the stretch at the Fairgrounds in the LA Derby, as well as his Beyer trend.
• If you take out two (admittedly huge) defeats to Eskendereya, Jackson Bend’s career record would be 9-7-2-0. Distance will be the biggest issue for him… but this is a really good horse.
• Conveyance’s form looks an awful lot like NoBizLikeShoBiz’s did in 2007, with consistent 90’s Beyers. Loyal readers might remember that I touted NoBiz that year.
• American Lion’s Illinois Derby effort… pulling away at the end of a 1 1/8 race.
• Super Saver’s Beyer trend, his jockey Calvin Borel’s recent successes in the Derby, and his bloodline for distance racing (Maria’s Mon / AP Indy)
• Ice Box’s pure one-run closer style. The move in the Florida Derby was large (from 11^th to 1^st). The extra distance should be great for him, and Andrew Beyer seems to like him.
• Awesome Act’s strong finish in the Gotham… although it was at only 8 ½ furlongs.
• Noble’s Promise also has a strong Tomlinson Rating for off tracks.
• That Backtalk’s sire is Smarty Jones, even if he has no business in this race.
• That Dublin was purchased for $525K as a yearling, even if he never wins races.

…and some things I don’t

• The staggering amount of early speed in this race makes it difficult for anyone to win from the front. There are no fewer than 6 horses who would love to have the lead at the half… and unless they alter their style, it will be difficult for them to be there when it counts.
• Conveyance’s form looks an awful lot like NoBizLikeShoBiz’s did in 2007, and NoBiz had NoBiz in that race. Sometimes, consistency could mean stagnation. Further, distance might be a major issue with Derby flops in his bloodline (Indian Charlie was 3^rd as favorite, while Holy Bull was a no-show as the favorite… but both were phenomenal milers.)
• Distance should be a big issue for Discreetly Mine and Noble’s Promise.
• How many horses in this race who have raced almost exclusively on polytrack or turf surfaces.
• Ice Box’s 2 year old campaign. If he had finished 2^nd in the Florida Derby, would he still be the 3^rd choice here?
• The last to win after a 6 week layoff was Needles in 1956, meaning that history is not on the side of Ice Box or Devil May Care… but it should be noted that Big Brown won on a 5 week layoff. Perhaps training methods are changing with the times?
• The hits just keep coming, as Devil May Care is also filly. You won’t find my money there at 10-1.
• Amazingly, there are 5 different horses in this field that have already beaten Dublin in his past three starts. Kind of hard to pick him after reading that.
• Horses that haven’t won at 3 years old: Noble’s Promise, Super Saver, Jackson Bend, Dublin, Homeboykris.
• Horses that only have one career win: Make Music For Me, Paddy O’Prado.
• Jackson Bend’s blood lines as it relates to his ability of going 10 furlongs. Apparently, this is a ‘small’ horse with endurance concerns.
• How I’m more and more confused by Awesome Act’s form every time I look at it. Turf? Synthethic? Foreign? Beyer Figures? Racing Posts Ratings? Unknown trainer? Unknown Jockey? His Dam is fittingly named Houdini’s Honey… and there is definitely some mystery surrounding him as far as I’m concerned. Marty McGee at DRF loves him, picking him 3^rd and claiming that his Wood effort can be discounted because he threw a shoe… but I’m skeptical at 10 to 1.

Last Place Prediction

If you play in a pool where picking the worst horse wins you something… I’d shoot for Homeboykris, who is coming off a long layoff, has no wins as a three year old, is a gelding, and already struggled when asked to go longer than a mile. Then again, I picked Mine That Bird in this space last year… so use your own judgment here.

So…. do you want to play the lottery?

If you want to try to find another Giacomo or Mine That Bird, then you have plenty of choices. In the group of horses with odds at 30 to 1 or higher, my two favorites are Line of David, who has my boy Bejarano aboard as well as a strong Arkansas Derby on his card. Pundits seem to think that his early speed makes him the favorite to have the lead, and a recent move to blinkers has really helped him out. Like many others, distance will also be a question for him.

I also like American Lion, who is coming off a rail to rail victory in the Illinois Derby. That race marked his first foray on a dirt surface after 5 on the poly; if he can overcome a potentially furious pace and improve off his 98 Beyer, he could vie for a major piece. For what its worth, he has a “considerable reputation,” and “is still improving,” according to George Cottrell. Also working against him is that no Illinois Derby winner has emerged since War Emblem in 2003, the same year the race moved back to Hawthorne.

…or do you want to bet on the best horse?

I’d say this is a toss up between Lookin At Lucky and Sidney’s Candy. Both have post problems to deal with, but since Lookin At Lucky doesn’t appear to need the lead to win, he’s got the edge. It seems that Sidney’s Candy will have to work mighty hard to get ahead of that many horses, this will be his first race on dirt, and it’s unsure if he could win without the lead… but his win in the Santa Anita Derby proves he is every bit as talented as Lookin.  Lucky’s bloodline is quite strong, sharing a sire with Curlin & English Channel while being full brothers with last year’s 4^th place Derby finisher, Papa Clem. He was a $475K yearling, and has been near the top of the futures wagering for some time now… he’s your best horse in the race. Of course, if you bet Lookin At Lucky and he does win… was a 3 to 1 payoff worth your risk? I’ll leave that for you to decide.

…or do you want to optimize your money making potential while keeping your risk profile down?

Given the short odds on those two, along with the large field and potentially poor weather, I’m inclined to look elsewhere. I keep trying to find a way to bet Jackson Bend, but it is a stretch given his bad fades down the stretch in the last two. (I still think he’s a gamer.) I also think Ice Box has the potential to get a piece given his racing style, but he will continue to be an all-or-nothing type should he get a bad trip. Traffic is a big part of a 20 horse race, and it isn’t often that the waters will part and give a dream trip for someone in last place… but it happened last year for Mine That Bird.

One pick will be Mission Impazible, a $200K yearling with improving Beyers and a good closing style. I’m not fully convinced that he’s classy enough to win here, but at 20 to 1, my fears are lessened. Plus, Mission Impazible doesn’t come from quite as far back as Ice Box, and he looks able to handle this distance.

Despite not winning a race this year, Super Saver has continued to step up his speed in every race, and it seems like the added distance should work well for him. He also appears to like an off track. My biggest concern is his ability to rate. Borel has proven that he can rate a winner at the Derby, and Pletcher is a solid trainer… so I’m on board at 15 to 1. He’s my pick for best betting value… and if he can overcome the pace issue, he’s got a legitimate chance to best the two favorites.

The Bet:

3 units Across the Board on #4 Super Saver

1 unit Across the Board on #7 American Lion and #14 Mission Impazible

1 unit Trifecta Box on #1 Lookin At Lucky, #20 Sidney’s Candy, #4 Super Saver, and #2 Ice Box

(Disclaimer… odds continue to change during the day, and some horses scratch due to weather. Be on the lookout for changing odds, because American Lion makes a whole lot more sense at 30 to 1 than at 7 to 1. My picks are all about relative value based on the opening odds.)

Be sure to forward along to any other racing enthusiasts that might not be on Facebook, aren’t readers of my blog (subscribe via RSS!), or are not on my e-mail list. Enjoy your mint juleps, everyone!

-Lou

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Lessons Learned Over 20 Years of the Kentucky Derby

1991: Strike The Gold

I was 11 years old when Dad brought me to my first Derby. Truth be told, we were watching via simulcast from NY, but I could tell from the hats and the crowd that there was something different about this racing day. It was easy to fall in love with horse racing on a day like this; you had star trainers like D. Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert on TV with their larger-than-life personas, my first exposure to the field as a bet (“I get more than one horse for the same price?!?”), and amazing thoroughbreds like Best Pal, Fly So Free, and the 5-1 favorite, Hansel. Getting my first exposure to the Daily Racing Form, my Dad explained to me why he loved Best Pal, who went on to win millions in his career. He taught me the basics to me of why betting a favorite in a 20 horse field can be a bad decision, as well as general trends of past performance, speed ratings, and jockeys. It is no wonder that I later went on to love statistics, economics, finance, and sports gambling in general. Thanks, Dad!

Since I was only ten years old, my bankroll was quite miniscule. I think my parents gave me $10 to bet for the day, which might as well have been $100 million. I tried to do what my Dad was doing with the form, even if I had no idea what the numbers meant. I finally decided to put a few bucks on the field, a few bucks on Fly So Free… and $2 to win on Strike The Gold.

I got nervous as a 16 to 1 shot named Sea Cadet led from the very beginning all the way until the top of the stretch. Strike The Gold didn’t get a call as he trailed behind in 6^th at the mile marker. Fly So Free faded down the stretch, but Strike The Gold made a big move in the stretch and held off Best Pal to win! Dad was pleased since he had bet Best Pal across the board, and I was beside myself after picking my first Derby winner.

Lessons Learned: You can pick a winner without a masters degree in horse racing. Just get the basics down.  Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. The Derby is always better with friends and family. Keep things in perspective and enjoy yourself. Since the race is so long, the front doesn’t tend to hold up in the Derby.

1992: Lil E. Tee

After my amazing $2 net profit from 1991, I was ecstatic when my family decided to attend the Derby in person. My first experiences with Churchill Downs, big hats, and mint juleps were easily overshadowed by my first experiences with the infield, public intoxication, and the idea that gambling could actually lead to losing money. Armed with an unimaginable $20, I bet a few races before the Derby before winding up with the very same $10 to wager on the big race. My Dad fell in love with Arazi, the prohibited favorite at even money. My small bets included Devil His Due (22-1) and my now-standard field bet (13-1).

Earlier in the day, my Dad had introduced me to a phenomenon called Pat Day. Apparently, this jockey was as close a thing to sure money as ever existed. The handicapping became simple: find which horse had Pat Day aboard, and then bet that horse. I stuck to that strategy, which led me to find Lil E Tee at 17 to 1 in the Derby. Coming in at a hefty $6, Pat Day became my first-ever “across the board” wager. My Dad watched in horror as Azeri didn’t fire down the stretch and came in 8^th, while I became a Pat Day fan for life when I cashed my winning ticket for $55.40. Picking Derby winners is easy!

Lessons Learned: Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. Good (or hot) jockeys DO make a difference. Budget your funds on race day.

1993: Sea Hero

This marked the first year I fell in love with the favorite. Prairie Bayou looked like magic on the form, and I even liked the name. I’m sure I put a saver bet on longshot Wallenda, ridden by the amazing Mr. Day. I remember the feeling of emptiness as Sea Hero (ridden by another favorite jockey, Jerry Bailey) took the lead as they turned for home and never looked back. Prairie Bayou was a game second, but I just couldn’t comprehend that I was going home without picking the winner.

Lessons Learned: Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. You can’t win every year, but good analysis can still get you a 2^nd place finish. Good (or hot) jockeys DO make a difference.

1994: Go For Gin

1994 marked my first experience with a sloppy track. I didn’t realize that something that simple could drastically change the outcome of the race. In fact, a few horses scratched because of track conditions, and Dad taught me how to analyze a horse’s ability to run in the slop based on past races and blood lines. (today, you can do this easier by looking at Tomlinson Ratings) Much like he did with Azeri a few years back, my Dad developed a man-crush on the favorite, Holy Bull. I still remember the awe I had for him when he went back to place a second $50 across the board wager on him. My horse was Tabasco Cat, who had Pat Day, D. Wayne Lukas, and an awesome name to boot. After Holy Bull and Tabasco Cat misfired and finished out of the money, I could only cash my $2 saver bet to show on the nearly wire-to-wire winner, Go For Gin, who was picked purely on my Dad’s off-track analysis.

Lessons Learned: Track conditions matter. Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. (Notice a trend here?)

1995: Thunder Gulch

Now that I finally had a real job (minimum wage at a local golf course), this Derby was the first where I made bets with my own money. This year, the Derby had a field of 6 horses, as well as 2 ‘coupled’ entries of 2 horses. My Dad and I agreed on our pick this year, but for different reasons. He liked the favorite, Timber Country, a D. Wayne Lukas trained horse with Pat Day aboard. I loved the horse that Timber Country was coupled with, Serena’s Song. Until this race, I hadn’t realized that fillies ran with colts at all, or why that mattered. Serena’s Song had dominated races all the way up to the Derby, and her past performances all looked fantastic on paper, but had never been in a race with 19 other huge colts. Serena’s Song took the lead from the very beginning, and was still ahead after a mile. As they turned for home, Serena’s Song had dropped back to 4^th by 4 lengths, and had fallen all the way to 16^th by race’s end. Lucky for me, I got Timber Country as part of the entry, as Timber Country finished 3^rd to the longshot Thunder Gulch. Hot jockey Gary Stevens won the race… followed by our favorites, Jerry Bailey and Pat Day.

Lessons Learned: Fillies typically do not fare well against the boys. Longshots DO win this race. Good (or hot) jockeys DO make a difference. Since the race is so long, the front doesn’t tend to hold up in the Derby.

1996: Grindstone

By now, I had already been hyping the race to all my friends, and many of them began joining me and my family on our yearly pilgrimage. My Dad, once again betting the favorite, suffered defeat as Unbridled’s Song finished in 5^th. The finish was one for the ages, as Grindstone won by only a nose, and this year marked the first time I hit a big exacta, parlaying Grindstone over Cavonnier into a $70 payday.

As a side note, I remember taking this $70 and spending it on the $350 titanium head Wilson Invex driver that was popularized by John Daly. I loved it for about one month, then never hit it again because it was impossible to control.

Lessons Learned: Since the race is so long, the front doesn’t tend to hold up in the Derby. The Derby is always better with friends and family. Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. Don’t spend $350 on a golf club without hitting it first.

1997: Silver Charm

I remember this Triple Crown for betting Captain Bodgit in all three races. (He came in a respectable 2^nd in the Derby, then 3^rd in the Preakness and Belmont.) This race didn’t “feel” like the Kentucky Derby to me because there were only 13 horses in the field. One of the things that make the Derby so unpredictable is all the bumping out of the gate as they try to get position, but in a smaller 13-horse field, they are able to settle in easier. As you might expect with less variables, this race had the two favorites winning, with a 3 to 1 shot in 2^nd place, and a 4 to 1 shot winning.

Lessons Learned: Post Positions (and the number of entrants) matter.

1998: Real Quiet

Another small-ish field of 15 produced a nice stretch duel between Real Quiet and Victory Gallop. The Favorite, Indian Charlie, finished in 3^rd, while the other heavily bet horses came in 4^th & 5^th. I tried to beat the favorites with a longshot but my horse, Artax, never fired and came in 13^th. I remember not liking Real Quiet because it took him 7 tries to break his maiden… but it seems that there is no clear path to the Derby.

Lessons Learned: Since the race is so long, the front doesn’t tend to hold up in the Derby.

1999: Charismatic

My love affair with Pat Day continued aboard Menifee, who was a game 2^nd place behind 30 to 1 longshot Charismatic. The betting public loved Stephen Got Even, who came in 14^th. This was one of those races where no amount of research would have helped you, because Charismatic simply did not look capable of winning the race leading up to the Derby. Cat Thief held the lead at the mile and the top of the stretch, but couldn’t hold on.

Lessons Learned: Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. Since the race is so long, the front doesn’t tend to hold up in the Derby. Crazy, crazy things can happen here.

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus

Fusaichi Pegasus was one of those ‘game-changer’ horses, where it was very clear early on who the best was. As we all know, I almost always try to beat a prohibited favorite in a deep field, so when Fusaichi went off at 2 to 1, I put my money elsewhere out of principle. After all, the favorite had lost every year since the late 1970’s. Unfortunately for me, the strategy didn’t pay off for either of my picks, War Chant (9^th), or High Yield (15^th)…. but I stick to my guns with my strategy.

Lessons Learned: Rules are made to be broken. Use common sense when a horse looks awesome.

2001: Monarchos

After 4 years without betting on a winner, I was starting to get worried. This year’s favorite, Point Given, looked a lot like Fusaichi did the year earlier, and the betting public had installed him as a 9 to 5 favorite. Coming from post 17, and because of all the bumping, Point Given had to go out wide for most of the race and tired badly. This is why post position is important… and why anything can happen in a 20 horse field. My analysis with early speed had led me to picking late finishers for this race, which led me to Balto Star (14^th)…. and Monarchos, who paid a tidy $23.00 to win. Strangely, Monarchos came from post 16, and was bumped badly by Point Given at the start… but settled in 13^th before making a great stretch run to win by nearly 5 lengths. Impressively, Monarchos’ finishing time is the second best in Derby history… behind only Secretariat. (They are the only two under 2:00)

Lessons Learned: Rules are made to be broken. Post Positions (and the number of entrants) matter. Don’t go crazy betting the favorite.

2002: War Emblem

This was a funky race, as War Emblem was given an uncontested lead for the entire race. Dictating the speed allowed War Emblem to keep some in the tank for the stretch, and pull away to win by 4. This race lacked a true “favorite,” with six horses coming in around 7 or 8 to 1. My pick was Medaglia d’Oro, who was a game 4^th behind War Emblem, longshot Proud Citizen, and Perfect Drift.

Leading up to the race, War Emblem had posted a monster 116 Beyer in the Illinois Derby, but he was discounted because of his running style from the front. Hey, it seemed like a good idea at the time.

Lessons Learned: Rules are made to be broken.

2003: Funny Cide

This year marked my very first Deep Lou Something post, sharing my picks with around 50 of my closest friends and family. Despite strong past performances, I dismissed Funny Cide because he was a gelding… which seemed like good logic since the last gelding to win was in 1929. Of course, two geldings have won in the past 8 years now (Mine That Bird), so that rule is out the window! My main pick, Peace Rules, came in a respectable 3^rd place behind Funny Cide and favorite Empire Maker.

Lessons Learned: Even 74 year trends can be broken. Cashing a ticket is a victory.

2004: Smarty Jones

The favorite has to win sometime, right? My pick was The Cliff’s Edge, who was not really a factor in 5^th place.

Lessons Learned: Use common sense when a horse looks awesome.

2005: Giacomo

I’ll never understand this year’s result. 5 of the top 6 horses had odds of over 22 to 1. Favorite Bellamy Road came in 7^th, and another main contender, Bandini, came in 19^th. I quickly dismissed Giacomo for two main reasons: only one career win entering the KY Derby… which was a maiden race as a 2 year old, and because his sire was Holy Bull, who had already proven to me that he wasn’t able to run 10 furlongs a few years earlier. I did bet Afleet Alex, who came in 3^rd, so it wasn’t a total disaster… but this was one crazy race. (Afleet Alex went on to win both the Preakness and the Belmont)

Lessons Learned: Crazy, crazy things can happen here. Don’t go crazy betting the favorite.

2006: Barbaro

Once again, the morning line favorite (Brother Derek) couldn’t make the podium, as he was forced 6 wide coming out of the 18^th post position. I tried to discount Barbaro for his limited race history, but I ended up putting a saver bet on him when his odds jumped from 4 to 1 up to 6 to 1 on race day. That didn’t make up for my losses on the 6^th place finishing SweetNorthernSaint, who I bet heavily on. (After the opening odds were announced, they changed during the race day, and SweetNorthernSaint actually became the favorite at 5 ½ to 1…. meaning that I broke my own rule about not betting the favorite!)

Lessons Learned: Post Position matters, and it is very difficult to win from the far inside or far outside post positions. Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. Use common sense when a horse looks awesome.

2007: Street Sense

An odd year where the two main rivals had issues. Curlin had run in only three races for his career, and was unraced as a 2 year old. Of course, he won all three of those races in impressive fashion. Street Sense, on the other hand, had only run twice as a 3 year old, and just come off a terrible race in the Bluegrass. In hindsight, we can see that Street Sense simply didn’t like the polytrack at Keeneland, which led to his poor speed there… but at the time it was a big question mark. Street Sense and Curlin went off as essentially co-favorites at 5 to 1… and both hit the board. Another horse with short odds, Hard Spun, came in 2^nd, making this one of the first years when the Derby actually ran as the betting public thought it should!

In other news, 2 geldings (Imawildandcrazyguy & Dominican) finished out of the money, just like my awful pick, NoBizLikeShoBiz.

Lessons Learned: Stick with history when it seems appropriate.

2008: Big Brown

Just to rub it in, Big Brown follows in the footsteps of Curlin and debunks history. Big Brown’s nearly 5 length victory defies many of the Derby maxims: he had only ran three times in his career, was the prohibited favorite at 5 to 2, and was coming from the far outside 20^th post position. To make things worse for me, the filly Eight Belles comes in 2^nd place. I wagered heavily on Pyro, who finished in 8^th.

Lessons Learned: Rules are made to be broken. Use common sense when a horse looks awesome.

2009: Mine That Bird

Based on everything else you’ve been reading here, did you really think the favorites would continue to do so well? Mine That Bird came from absolutely NOWHERE to win this race. His career high Beyer figure entering the race was an 81. I don’t care who you are; you just could not have picked this horse to win. I went out of my way during my analysis to point out that Mine That Bird should not have been in the race at all, and was a lock for last place. My broadcasted pick was I Want Revenge… who promptly scratched due to concerns with the sloppy track conditions. I wound up taking Papa Clem (with my newest favorite jockey, Rafael Bejarano aboard), who came in a respectable but off-the-board 4^th place.

Lessons Learned: Track conditions matter. Don’t go crazy betting the favorite. Crazy, crazy things can happen here.

2010: ???

Lessons Learned: Don’t over-think things. Don’t write verbose blog postings that nobody wants to read.