
It was enjoyable watching Super Saver win the big one last year, validating my handicapping strategy for the big race… even if I went against my published pick and bet on Lookin’ At Lucky after the odds changed late in the day. Ah well… back to the drawing board for this year. Since last year went so swimmingly, I’ll stick with the same format and hope it works two years in a row.
If you are a first time reader, or want to brush up on my general race day philosophies, be sure to start with last year’s post. It also has a breakdown of lessons learned from 20 years at the Derby.
(here are the links to my picks from other years.)
(And here is a link if you are a first time blog reader)
In what has become a trend in recent years (First with Quality Road and I Want Revenge in 2009, and then Eskendeyera in last year’s race), leading Derby contenders The Factor and Toby’s Corner have been scratched in the days leading up to the race. Further, Uncle Mo has gone from prohibited favorite to giant question mark after a recent bout with a gastro-intestinal tract infection. These developments have left us with another wide-open field of 20, with no clear-cut favorite on the card. Let’s see how they all shake out.
The Speed Factor: Beyers over 100
In addition to late scratches, this year’s crop of 3yo’s seem to be weak overall when compared to past prep winners. I’m starting to feel like the Wood Memorial is cursed, because this marks three years in a row that their winner has not run in the Derby. As you can see by some of the past prep winners that have went on to win the Derby (in gray), they have all shown big speed ratings at some point. It goes without saying that any horse will need to run their best to win at CD, but most of the time, a horse has shown a 100+ on their form before the Derby. (I say most of the time because Mine That Bird and Giacomo absolutely came from nowhere.)

In this field, only 2 horses have EVER run a 100+ Beyer: Uncle Mo and Soldat. Uncle Mo has done it twice… but both times were as a 2yo. His best figure as a 3yo was a 92 last time out while finishing 3rd in the Wood. Soldat ran a 103, but it was in an allowance race, and not versus stakes competition. Master of Hounds has run 2 races that earned a 115 Timeform rating. There is no easy conversion from Timeform to Beyer, but a rule of thumb is 85% to 90%, which means that Master of Hounds needs to be in the conversation. A few other top Beyers of note: Mucho Macho Man (99), ArchArchArch (98), Nehro (98), Dialed In (97), and Midnight Interlude (97).

Bucking History: A look at key trends
Of course, training practices have improved drastically in recent years, so maybe these streaks are ready to be broken. Feeling lucky?
Layoffs
The last to win after a 6 week layoff was Needles in 1956.
Horses on 6 week layoff: Mucho Macho Man, Master of Hounds, Pants on Fire, Animal Kingdom, Twice the Appeal, and Decisive Moment.
2 Year Old Racing
Only one Derby winner (Apollo in 1882) did not race as a 2-year-old:
Horses that were unraced at 2 years old: Midnight Interlude.
Since 1933, only five horses have won the Derby after breaking their maiden during their 3-year-old campaign.
Horses that did not win at 2 years old: Nehro, Midnight Interlude.
Stakes Winners
Since 1971, only 50-1 Giacomo in 2005 earned his first stakes victory in the Derby.
Horses that have not won a stakes race: Nehro, Master of Hounds, Shackleford, Twice the Appeal, Twinspired, Decisive Moment
Geldings & Fillies
Only three fillies have won the Derby: Regret (1915), Genuine Risk (1980), and Winning Colors (1988).
Fillies entered in the Derby: None.
Since Clyde Van Dusen won in 1929, only one Gelding has won the Derby: Funny Cide in 2003.
Geldings entered in the Derby: Comma to the Top.
Last Race
The last horse last horse to win the Derby after being worse than fourth in its last prep was Iron Liege in 1957.
Horses who were worse than 4th in their last race: Soldat, Santiva, Stay Thirsty, Watch Me Go
Track Surface
No horse has won the Derby without racing first on a true dirt surface.
Horses who have run exclusively on PolyTrack and/or Turf courses: Master of Hounds, Animal Kingdom
Others of Note: Brilliant Speed (6 of 8 on Turf or Poly), Comma to the Top (10 of 13 on Poly), Twinspired (7 of 8 on Turf or Poly).
A word on track condition…
From the Weather Channel: “Saturday: Yet another strong upper disturbance moves into Kentucky. Threat for rain and thunderstorms. Some t-storms may be severe. A high in the mid 70s.”
A Sloppy surface changes this race a great deal. Horses who run from off the pace will have to deal with more mud thrown in their face, which can impact their stamina over 10F. A quick look at the Tomlinson Ratings for wet surfaces shows Twice the Appeal has the most to gain (theoretically) over a wet surface. Also favor horses that run from the front in this scenario (Uncle Mo, Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire)
Finally, if you make your wager early, make sure your horse doesn’t scratch due to weather concerns. If your horse doesn’t run, you get your money back.
Tomlinson Ratings
- Twice The Appeal 423
- Shackleford 421
- Uncle Mo 418
- Mucho Macho Man 415
- Soldat 407
- Decisive Moment 404
- Watch Me Go 403
- Archarcharch 398
- Pants On Fire 397
- Santiva 383
- Dialed In 371
- Nehro 371
- Stay Thirsty 370
- Twinspired 362
- Midnight Interlude 348
- Brilliant Speed 348
- Master Of Hounds 334
- Animal Kingdom 289
- Derby Kitten 287
- Comma To The Top 280
Oh the Odds, they are a-changin’
Unlike traditional gambling which follows a stock market style of odds-making, Derby odds will continue to change during the day based on a Pari-mutuel wagering system. All my picks here are all about relative value based on the opening odds. Be on the lookout for changing odds, because I will bet the house on Dialed In if he goes off at 20 to 1. In taking a look at the opening odds, there will be plenty of movement. There is just no way that ALL these horses will stay at 30 to 1. I’ll update closer to race day with my thoughts here.

The Favorite
From 1979 through 2001, every Derby favorite was beaten, creating the “never bet on the favorite” rule. However, 4 of the next 6 winners were favorites, which led to re-thinking of this maxim. This year, there is no clear Fusaichi Pegasus, Big Brown, or Smarty Jones-type horse that demands our respect at the window.
The morning line favorite is Dialed In, a $475,000 colt out of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft. There is plenty to like, as his bloodlines (AP Indy, Seattle Slew, Storm Cat) give plenty of reasons to suggest that Dialed In can go 10 furlongs here. He’s already won at Churchill Downs, and has done nothing wrong in his career.
However, there are plenty of chinks in the armor. For starters, the last Kentucky Derby winner who broke his maiden at Churchill was Broker’s Tip in 1933. The biggest issue for me is the lack of seasoning. He ran only one race as a 2yo, and has yet to see a field of 10 or more horses as a 3yo. The last horse to win off four career starts? Exterminator in 1918. He lost in an Optional Claiming race in March, which can’t be the preferred path to the Derby. His off-the-pace style can clearly win here (see: Mine That Bird), but it also takes some luck to navigate through a field of 20 if you get too far behind. If this horse had finished 2nd in the Florida Derby, I think he’d be the 3rd or 4th choice here, but his form looks oh-so-clean with 3 wins in 4 races. I’m not saying that he can’t win the race… I’m just not on board assuming that he is less than 6 or 7 to 1.
Some things I like…
- Horses who have already won at Churchill Downs: Dialed In, Uncle Mo, Shackleford, and Santiva.
- Uncertainty about Uncle Mo’s illness, because it just might keep his odds reasonable.
- ArchArchArch has improved in every race this year, from a 63 to a 98.
- Dialed In figures to enjoy the extra distance, as his sire (Mineshaft), grandsire (AP Indy), and great-grandsire (Seattle Slew) were all Horse of the Year and had great success at the classic distance.
- Nehro is Dialed In’s half-brother, and has the added benefit of Afleet and Mr. Prospector on his dam’s side. This horse should love the classic distance.
- ArchArchArch showed great finishing kick in the Arkansas Derby, and looks to be a good candidate for 10F.
…and some things I don’t
- Mucho Macho Man is a June 15 foal, making him perhaps the youngest horse ever to run in the Derby, let alone win.
- Uncertainty about Uncle Mo’s illness, because he might not be healthy enough to win here.
- Post positions for ALL of my picks at bottom.
- Nehro has only won one race… ever. Despite amazing connections (Mineshaft), it doesn’t sound like a recipe for success here.
- Mucho Macho man is out of Holy Bull, a Derby favorite who simply could not make the last furlong.
- Without fractions at a snails’ pace, Pants on Fire should have some difficulties making it home.
- Soldat is half brother to The Factor, as part of the first crop from War Front. The Factor would have been one of the favorites here, but it isn’t really known if Soldat can go the full distance. This is another horse that will benefit from slower fractions.
Last Place Prediction
If you play in a pool where picking the worst horse wins you something… I’d shoot for Watch Me Go. WMG “earned” his way in by winning the Tampa Bay Derby in March. This is not a classy horse, as he has paraded around Crc, Tam, and Haw with middling results. His career best 84 Beyer speed rating shows that he is clearly outmatched here.
I want to be a fan of local Turfway Park horse Twinspired, but I can’t find anything on the form to hang my hat on. He’s a gelding, and quite simply, without his 2ndin the Bluegrass a few weeks ago, this horse doesn’t even make the field. Throw in a racing history almost exclusively on poly track and turf and a slew of Beyers in the 70’s… and you are looking at a horse that finishes near the back of the pack.

The Four Horsemen
Dialed In has done absolutely nothing wrong. He’s clearly a talented horse who knows how to win. I just wish he was more seasoned, and came at higher odds. I think he’s got a legitimate chance to win here, but I’m leaving him off my win tickets unless those odds change.
Soldat is my “longshot” pick. If you throw out his last time out, he has been 1st or 2nd in every race. He’s shown great figures as a 3yo, including a wire to wire victory in the Fountain of Youth. He’s one of two horses who can boast multiple wins at 9F, and will go off at 15 to 1 or more. Also, he appears to like off tracks, which should help in case of rain. Lots to like here, especially at this price.
ArchArchArch has only had one “bad” race, finishing 4th in the Smarty Jones earlier this year. Of course, the fog was so thick that day, we aren’t even sure who was winning that race until they came home. His bloodlines all indicate that he should love the extra distance (Danzig, Arch, Mr. Prospector, Nureyev), and his last race out showed great finishing kick in a field of 13. Hate his #1 post position, but he’s a solid horse.
Before the Wood Memorial, Uncle Mo would have been your prohibited favorite. His 108 in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile was a BIG race. There is plenty to nitpick here, as he hasn’t been proven healthy, he hasn’t shown that he can win from anywhere but the lead, his sire (Indian Charlie) is a clear miler, and his best races were as a 3yo… but he’s the most talented horse in the field. I’ve got a hunch that trainer Todd Pletcher will get him healthy in time for the big day.
The Bet
3 units Across the Board on #18 Uncle Mo (Assuming he runs, of course!), at any odds greater than 5 to 1.
1 unit Across the Board on #17 Soldat and #1 ArchArchArch
1 unit Trifecta Box on #18 Uncle Mo, #1 ArchArchArch, #17 Soldat, and #8 Dialed In

Finally, I’ll be watching the Derby this year at Turfway Park with a group of family and friends. If you are in the area, be sure to catch up with me before, during, or after the race.
I appreciate everyone forwarding this along to any other racing enthusiasts that might not be on Facebook, aren’t readers of my blog (subscribe via RSS!), or are not on my e-mail list. Enjoy your mint juleps, everyone!
-Lou

PS… anyone else miss Pat Day?

UPDATE!
Uncle Mo was scratched early Friday morning. I stand by the analysis above, but this obviously changes your betting strategy. Below are my revised wagers, but please note that this is based on the new morning line odds. If they continue to change, I will adapt and post another updated.
The (Revised) Bet
3 units Across the Board on #1 ArchArchArch
2 units Across the Board on #17 Soldat
1 unit Exacta Box on #1 ArchArchArch, #17 Soldat, and #8 Dialed In